Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Wright place in the order?

Following up on the lineup talk from the other day...

I know David Wright hit some cleanup last year with mixed success, but I think the Mets have to figure out a way to get him back either to the 3 spot (ideal) or the 5 hole to maximize his production. There may be a perception that Wright can easily transition into more of a power hitting role, due to his strength and position. But putting him at 4 looks like a classic square peg in round hole situation from where I'm sitting.

Though he hit 33 dingers last year, David's at his best when he's driving line drives and going opposite field, rather than trying to pull the ball for power. In fact, the slumps David has gotten himself in over the past few years have in every case been a result of getting overeager to pull the ball resulting in a failure to stay back and drive it the other way. Asking for more power out of the guy is likely to exacerbate that issue.
David Wright gives you a lot offensively that many people don't realize. He hits to all fields, he moves runners over, he beats out double plays and he steals bases with great efficiency. In short, he's much better suited to a spot in the order that calls for a range of different situational skills, not one whose primary job is to swing for the fences. That role is more appropriate for Carlos Delgado, who's gonna give you more consistent power but far less consistent production in other departments.

But if it were just Wright hitting cleanup we were dealing with, I wouldn't be so concerned. The bigger picture problem here for me is that in Wright and Jose Reyes (slated to hit 3), the Mets are now set to have their best two players hitting outside their natural spots, and in Reyes' case, dramatically so. Throw in the idea coming out of camp that Carlos Beltran will hit 2nd and you've got the bulk of the Mets run production adjusting to uncomfortable roles.

I don't think I'm alone in being worried about the long-term ramifications - both on the field and off - of a decision to make your stars sacrifice for the good of your role players. Needless to say, that's not the way it normally works at the pro level of any team sport, let alone the most individually focused team sport.

We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out, but my guess is that the "turn everyone on their heads in the hope that we can squeeze a modicum of production out of Luis Castillo" experiment doesn't survive past Memorial Day.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Paging Benjamin Button to Second Base.

Given that the vast majority of big name free agents have landed in their respective new homes and Spring Training is well underway, I think it's fair to start talking a little baseball... or at least Mets baseball.

To me, its become increasingly evident that any serious playoff chances the Mets have in '09 rest on the rickety old legs of Luis Castillo.


If that scares you.... it should. After all, since his acquisition back in July of 2007 from Minnesota, Luis has given us mas-o-menos 20 games worth of major league caliber play. But despite looking downright ancient down the stretch that year, the hometeam rewarded him with a 4 year contract extension. To this day, I believe that's been one of the single most deranged moments of the Minaya era in Queens - almost Isaiah-esque. Luis rewarded Mets fans last year by spending most of his time on the DL, then making sporadic surprise cameos in which he absolutely stunk up the joint. And though the numbers were awful (.245 batting average, 11 TOTAL extra base hits), they don't begin to describe how painful it was to watch this guy gimp around like a washed up corporate league softball player. To describe this guy as decrepit at age 32 would have been charitable.

However, with a stubbornness that has become characteristic of this front office (*see their refusal to come to grips with the bullpen's terminal prognosis for a solid 2 years), the Mets are intent on squeezing some semblance of ROI out of this guy. There were other quality second basemen available on the market this year at relatively modest prices - Orlando Hudson being the most attractive - but Minaya and Co. didn't bite, instead forcing Jerry Manuel to get creative with what has been a human black hole in his everyday lineup.

And creativity is exactly what J-Man's given them, announcing at the start of Spring Training that he would experiment with a lineup featuring Castillo at the top and Jose Reyes in the 3 spot. Yes, that Jose Reyes. Arguably the best lead off hitter in baseball Jose Reyes. Willie Mays Hayes Reyes. I stole 80 bases hitting lead off in '07 Jose Reyes.

Give Manuel some credit here. This is a BALLSY move, and he knows it. This is not a move that he would have made, had he not thought it absolutely necessary. He's basically risking totally fucking up the psyche of most valuable (apologies to #5) player. Reyes is a prototypical lead off guy, and despite his youth, his charisma at the top of the Mets' order has really shaped the style and personality of this team over the past 3 years. Putting him at 3, where he is an awkward fit at best on paper, rightfully raises eyebrows among those that understand the unique demands of a #3 hitter compared with a #1 hitter.

Additionally, even at his most productive, Luis was a far different kind of lead-off guy than Jose. Though his speed wasn't terrible, he never was a big base stealer. And he certainly never went for a lot of 2+ baggers. He's pretty much been a singles guy his entire career, which puts a ton of pressure on the guys behind, namely Carlos Beltran and yep.... Jose Reyes.

Manuel is extremely popular in the clubhouse, so I don't foresee him having too big a problem pitching this shakeup to the players initially. The real risk is how Jose responds mentally to the transition. I don't think it's a stretch to say that this move seriously risks derailing Jose's progress as a superstar in the big leagues, both physically and psychologically. (Remember when Omar Epps starts trying to hit for power at the beginning of Major League 2?)

If it works, Manuel is a genius. If not, the fans and media are going to go crazier than that rabid chimp from Stamford. Right now, it's clear that he's not afraid to play the mad scientist. The question is whether that scientist went to MIT or ITT Tech. And all this just to find a way to keep Luis Castillo from completely sapping the team's run-manufacturing capabilities. It's indicative of just how awful Luis has been that J-Man would feel it necessary to take this kind of risk.
Now ALLEGEDLY, Luis looks healthier this year than he has since he came to New York. He's dropped almost 20 lbs and his knees have responded well to the extended R&R of that long, playoffs-free off season. J-Man is singing his praises for how spry he looks in the early going - like the Luis Castillo of yesteryear. But I'm inclined to believe that all that positivity is more likely part of an effort to buy Castillo some time over the first few months, rather than a reflection of genuine confidence on the part of the manager. If J-Man was confidence, Jose Reyes wouldn't be hitting 3.
So we're all just gonna have to hold our breaths and wait until we can see for our own eyes what type of player Castillo really is this year. If he can regain a semblance of his late-20s, Marlins/Twins form, when he hit .300 and could reach base consistently with bunts and slap hits, then I think the Mets lineup looks pretty functional - certainly functional enough to give the Phillies a run given our significant bullpen upgrades. But if the knees start wearing out again and he fails to give us anything offensively, then I have serious concerns, given the lack of punch from our corner outfielders, and the roller coaster production that Carlos Delgado brings.
I hope the former comes to pass, but given the track record, I think it's fair to be very nervous.