To me, its become increasingly evident that any serious playoff chances the Mets have in '09 rest on the rickety old legs of Luis Castillo.
If that scares you.... it should. After all, since his acquisition back in July of 2007 from Minnesota, Luis has given us mas-o-menos 20 games worth of major league caliber play. But despite looking downright ancient down the stretch that year, the hometeam rewarded him with a 4 year contract extension. To this day, I believe that's been one of the single most deranged moments of the Minaya era in Queens - almost Isaiah-esque. Luis rewarded Mets fans last year by spending most of his time on the DL, then making sporadic surprise cameos in which he absolutely stunk up the joint. And though the numbers were awful (.245 batting average, 11 TOTAL extra base hits), they don't begin to describe how painful it was to watch this guy gimp around like a washed up corporate league softball player. To describe this guy as decrepit at age 32 would have been charitable.
However, with a stubbornness that has become characteristic of this front office (*see their refusal to come to grips with the bullpen's terminal prognosis for a solid 2 years), the Mets are intent on squeezing some semblance of ROI out of this guy. There were other quality second basemen available on the market this year at relatively modest prices - Orlando Hudson being the most attractive - but Minaya and Co. didn't bite, instead forcing Jerry Manuel to get creative with what has been a human black hole in his everyday lineup.
And creativity is exactly what J-Man's given them, announcing at the start of Spring Training that he would experiment with a lineup featuring Castillo at the top and Jose Reyes in the 3 spot. Yes, that Jose Reyes. Arguably the best lead off hitter in baseball Jose Reyes. Willie Mays Hayes Reyes. I stole 80 bases hitting lead off in '07 Jose Reyes.
Give Manuel some credit here. This is a BALLSY move, and he knows it. This is not a move that he would have made, had he not thought it absolutely necessary. He's basically risking totally fucking up the psyche of most valuable (apologies to #5) player. Reyes is a prototypical lead off guy, and despite his youth, his charisma at the top of the Mets' order has really shaped the style and personality of this team over the past 3 years. Putting him at 3, where he is an awkward fit at best on paper, rightfully raises eyebrows among those that understand the unique demands of a #3 hitter compared with a #1 hitter.
Additionally, even at his most productive, Luis was a far different kind of lead-off guy than Jose. Though his speed wasn't terrible, he never was a big base stealer. And he certainly never went for a lot of 2+ baggers. He's pretty much been a singles guy his entire career, which puts a ton of pressure on the guys behind, namely Carlos Beltran and yep.... Jose Reyes.
Manuel is extremely popular in the clubhouse, so I don't foresee him having too big a problem pitching this shakeup to the players initially. The real risk is how Jose responds mentally to the transition. I don't think it's a stretch to say that this move seriously risks derailing Jose's progress as a superstar in the big leagues, both physically and psychologically. (Remember when Omar Epps starts trying to hit for power at the beginning of Major League 2?)
If it works, Manuel is a genius. If not, the fans and media are going to go crazier than that rabid chimp from Stamford. Right now, it's clear that he's not afraid to play the mad scientist. The question is whether that scientist went to MIT or ITT Tech. And all this just to find a way to keep Luis Castillo from completely sapping the team's run-manufacturing capabilities. It's indicative of just how awful Luis has been that J-Man would feel it necessary to take this kind of risk.
Now ALLEGEDLY, Luis looks healthier this year than he has since he came to New York. He's dropped almost 20 lbs and his knees have responded well to the extended R&R of that long, playoffs-free off season. J-Man is singing his praises for how spry he looks in the early going - like the Luis Castillo of yesteryear. But I'm inclined to believe that all that positivity is more likely part of an effort to buy Castillo some time over the first few months, rather than a reflection of genuine confidence on the part of the manager. If J-Man was confidence, Jose Reyes wouldn't be hitting 3.
So we're all just gonna have to hold our breaths and wait until we can see for our own eyes what type of player Castillo really is this year. If he can regain a semblance of his late-20s, Marlins/Twins form, when he hit .300 and could reach base consistently with bunts and slap hits, then I think the Mets lineup looks pretty functional - certainly functional enough to give the Phillies a run given our significant bullpen upgrades. But if the knees start wearing out again and he fails to give us anything offensively, then I have serious concerns, given the lack of punch from our corner outfielders, and the roller coaster production that Carlos Delgado brings.
I hope the former comes to pass, but given the track record, I think it's fair to be very nervous.
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